|Re: Long SDS at $19.70 (20% of account)|
Enjoyed your post. The short/long argument, especially for traders, is always one of timing so we're trying to judge what too much is. Too much buying, too much selling, too much optimism or pessimism. Thankfully for us a stormy situation often works to our benefit and often, as this weekend's discussion shows, many are looking to find the perfect storm... and find that rogue wave to place our bets on.
Here's an interesting indicator I haven't used before that seems to be flashing a sell signal and Hulbert discusses it with some insight here:
On Friday I was about to go short but only took a small position on oil because its been the magnet drawing markets up or taking them down. I don't think there's a disconnect yet, which is odd because oil doesn't influence more than 15% of the money even if one is liberal in counting. It seems the computer algorithms "think" so and if if oil moves up the market will likely.
As for timing I am looking for SPY puts around 1PM on Monday or Tuesday, but that's all just speculation until the week is underway.
What bothers me most about politics, and I do think there's some relation to markets, is the repetitive sales pitch on both sides that Americans are angry. I'm not, but I feel like someone who's in a vast shopping mall not responding to the cattle call to buy. If any person swallows the cool aid of "be angry" "your will be angry" "your are angry" 50,000 times it obviously has its effect. If you travel around the world as I do, there's not a lot to be angry about here and America is great now.
all signed with FWIW and a morning cup of coffee
| Reply to PornStarTrader - Msg #2604389 - 03/13/2016 07:36|
Re: Long SDS at $19.70 (20% of account)
OMG, I wrote a long, well written explanation on why I think we can go down and I hit the wrong key (back button) and I lost what I wrote. I want to cry. Anyway, I am too disappointed to write it again but I will say this.
I can see anything happening because nothing is garunteed.
The market has only been up because of the historical FED intervention and nobody except Cramer would dare dispute that. Just take a look at the DJIA chart from 1900 until present. It took 85 years to reach 1200 in a long steady uptrend. Then in the last 30 years it went vertical from 1200 to 18,000. I have a chart framed in my office wall showing 1900 - 2000 and its scary looking at it and it doesn't even show what else we have gained because it ended at 11,000!
I believe P/E ratios can change because they are not scientific nor are they in The Bible..There is no reason that stocks MUST be given a set upfront value for their future earnings. That P/E must change due to the fact they are not what these companies could do "drug free". Nor would I expect a natural bodybuilder to be able to be as strong or big as one using steroids.
And I don't buy the rationale that stock prices will go up or hold their prices due to due to raising rates means the economy is strong therefore the companies should do well going forward. If the FED or any sitting President truly believed that they would have raised rates long ago but nobody wants stocks trending down during their term. That said, keeping rates near zero forever can be done but then there is no tool to use if another crisis hits.
So maybe stocks go up more but I am confident it wont even be enough to squeeze me or make me feel uncomfortable. Just looking down from our nose bleed levels and knowing the FED knows they probably need to build up some ammo in case a crisis hits again gives me confidence I am positioning right. Matter of fact, I just got the epiphany I should up my short position even more. To at least 50% of my account would be right. I believe I will start doing that this week.