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Forum - Wall Street Pit    Stock Due Diligence for All

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From: rmlinden (Rep: 348)Date: 04/11/2010 11:31
Forum: Wall Street Pit - Msg #1918194Thread #672957360 (Rec: 0)
watchlist for coming week
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RRI
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MONTHLY - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RRI&p=M&b=6&g=0&id=p62490069395
during this period and upcoming months allways up


WEEKLY - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RRI&p=W&b=6&g=0&id=p16000993800

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RRI&p=W&b=6&g=0&id=p16000993800&a=197026820&listNum=1
its clearly visible that the stock made a lower leg whenever it reached the downtrend line
its at $4 resistance line that acted as support at nov 2008
there was no real divergence between rsi and lower lows. The lower low even got confirmed by new rsi5 low.
adx weekly might be topping out.
to be fair: i dont really know whether or not my normal DAILY indicator interpretations are applicable to weekly

DAILY - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RRI&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p16657301479
there might be a bearish rising flag http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RRI&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p16657301479&a=197026820&listNum=1
We see a repeating pattern in the adx and downlegs. The chart pattern is different though. previously we saw clean sine wave shaped moves in the stockprice. Last few days we have seen a move channel based movement. The difference in pattern may be significant, but i dont like the shape of it (being an bear flag).
The break above 4 will be of vital importance. If that holds for a few days then we are golden. Just look at what happened at the 20ma breaks in the past. Selloff after selloff.
To guard against that we must see a rsi5 60 level breakout and a pullback to NO LOWER than the 35-40 level.
We do see that the 9ma is getting tighter with the 45ema on the RSI14 lower on the chart.

ADDITION: if i draw in a falling resistance line using the strict rules then i see something interesting
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RRI&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p16657301479&a=197026820&listNum=1
the strict rule is to only use the close of the pivot high on the GREEN candle. So solely using closes.
That gives us confirmation on the 16th and 17 (highs), it touches the high of mar 11 and close of mar 12 thus giving validity to the trendline. Mar 20 we had a breakout and close above that line, but did not confirm it. We need 2 closes above to confirm. we got only one.
The last candle broke above the trendline and the PSAR (IMPORTANT) tipped to bullish.
My guess would be that at some point during friday we moved above the trendline, from that point in time we could see increased buy volume. If that is the case then this is a huge signal. Trendline level was 3.90 or 3.91.Lets see the 5 minute chart.
5 MINUTE : http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RRI&p=5&b=6&g=0&id=p02926802952
Ok the volume happened earlier. At the 5 minute 200sma break to be precise.
Interesting to note is the end of day sell candle. Day traders exitted the stock at very high volume, but price didnt move all that much. Good signal IMO.



Conclusion: bullish bias based on the monthly chart. Daily is neutral to bearish if we base our conclusion on the moving average and adx pattern. There is a difference in chart pattern for this spike though. THe chart pattern is a bearish one though. None the less this is buy biassed as the upmove probability increases per monthly chart. Daily rsi pattern is nice. Watch for OBV breakouts and increases in buy volume and decrease in sell volume. This is vital at the breakout. If the breakout test falls no deeper than support then we are set for a reversal

The 5 minute chart is of interest because the stock moved above the 200 sma.


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MIR - as suggested by pornstartrader ==============================================================
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MIR&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p23580671188

Seems to be linked to RRI and is an energy play

DAILY ANNOTATED : http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MIR&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p23580671188&a=197033613&listNum=1

WEEKLY: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MIR&p=W&b=6&g=0&id=p80738070831
chartwise this is just crap. I cant find bullish signals.

conclusion: this one came up on the scanner for over a week now. It seems to be linked to RRI (thus sector play). Chartwise im confident about the daily setup, much less about the weekly. Monthly is not relevant due to little information. Pornstar trade pointed out that this one will be a good buy fundamentally. Im trusting blindly on that, he is most likely correct. All in all a buy. We need to break out and confirm, but that wont be too hard.
When we look at the energy sector ETF then we see the 2nd quarter increase being a repeating pattern, which is confirmed by the RRI claims above. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIG&p=W&b=6&g=0&id=p02436845917
I dont know why MIR doesnt follow it though .. play might be too "young" or something. Im just guessing here.
Same sector as RRI. RRI looks coiled weekly. RRI and MIR both look ready on daily. This is a buy. Might get a bit choppy around the moving averages.

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DYN
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WEEKLY http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DYN&p=W&b=6&g=0&id=p33947682268
This one looks a bit ugly. The only support is the mental 1.20 round number line.
The candles are showing some good signals though. We had an inside week and then a short sell candle.THough selling volume exceeded the buy volume the candle before.
MACD isnt showing a reversal
ADX is picking up speed.
RSI14 is below the 9sma so that one will still move away from the 45 ema.

DAILY annotated http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DYN&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p36806803535&a=192012958&listNum=1

It has been coming up on the scans for a while now, and didnt seem ready. Then i got a mail about it, clearly there are more people watching this one.
The wierd thing is the buy to sell ratio last friday
http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/3513/dynbuytosell.jpg
This shows that there were 5.3 million shares bought and 2.7million sold. That is nearly 2 buys to every sell. This is good.
In AH we see a 350k buy at 1.1982. A fund buying from another fund at a predetermined price me thinks.

5 MINUTE CHART : http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DYN&p=5&b=6&g=0&id=p71162691525
this is why this thing is also interesting. 1.21 will be the breakout.
The last candle albeit red .. was actually green. The very last minute cadle was buying and not selling
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DYN&p=1&b=6&g=0&id=p87507827740

Conclusion: Chart shows that I jumped in early. Daily indicating that it might be ready. Weekly doesnt.
Worst case is the $1 area. The play is in the energy sector so that is good. Will set a close stop.

This one is very interesting.

================================================================
AVII
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next to no debt. 23 mill in equity.


went green last q


Market cap is over 5 times equity though

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVII&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p13267364592&a=197040238&listNum=1

Conclusion: im not too optimistic about this one. If you look back this stock has done very little. Nothing but moving down. Move down seems a bit overdone though so might be ripe for a scalp. Dont get your hopes up.


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HUSA - HIGH RISK
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From 20+ to 13 support at 50sma
DAILY http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HUSA&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p39313361680
Emotional play. Good for a scalp. Not yet for a reversal imo. This is a falling knife play aimed at volatlility and thus scalping. The charts indicators are a mess due to the selloff. They arent reliable.
The last candle is a clear dragonfly or hammer. This is a bottoming candle. Too big a coincidence that it happened right at support. This might start playing pingping with the moving averages.

Very oversold overall.

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VISN - my little baby :)
======================================================================
Alerted repeatedly on this one in watchlist posts.

DAILY http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VISN&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p33617096987&a=196011124&listNum=1
looking for continuation and likely reversal.
RSI14 9ma is about to give a good long signal as it will cross above the 45 ema. Expect a confirmation pullback though. This one will go higher as the trend reverses down here. RSI5 pullback should be to much lower than the 40 level.
PSAR is giving a good signal as it flipped.
Mid longterm play with the 5.25 range as resistance.

=================================================
MLNK - HIGH RISK DUE TO LOW AVG VOLUME
=================================================
DAILY http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MLNK&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p74220237145
pincher setup forming nicely. I dont like how it fell below support and fails to close above it. It basically confirmed the breakdown. It has shown us that the falling ma10 is stronger than the 200sma support. THis is NOT good.
Reason for posting is that its worth the watch in case the price moves above and breaks out.

LOW volume play .. should be avoided as it can be irratic.
MACD crossing
ADX topping
Price lingering around support
RSI5 startgin to give a bullish divergence

5 minute chart shows up increasing buy volume as it moved to break above the sma200 on the 5 minute chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MLNK&p=5&b=6&g=0&id=p99026236207

Be carefull to pick a good entry if playing.


NON SCANNER RESULTS : I find my 'ad hoc' picks to be less reliable. Thus I lable these as higher risk plays.
==============================================================
PLUG : rather bearish on this one, but seems unpredictable due to current pattern
==============================================================
annotated DAILY : http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PLUG&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p96283324854&a=190871689&listNum=1
Consolidation pattern in place as stock lacked power to break above 200sma. Perhaps it was getting ahead of itself. Watch for a breakout near the apex. Im not giving a buy or sell on this one since I dont understand the chart very well. I do feel that this might yield those that watch it a good lesson in retrospect.
Factors in play are the sector momentum. The repeated stock increase in the 2nd quarter year after year (sector momentum). The chart pattern is a consolidation (or continuations) pattern. Rest of the signals are bearish. It will be interesting to see which will be stronger. My GUESS would be bullish.. but we might be in for a week of pullback but most likely flat. If howevr we break above the wedge then this is a good buy.

Conclusion: Watch this one. ONLY play on very clear signals.


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PALM
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Daily: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PALM&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p20525793720&a=194046260&listNum=1

Called this one 2 days before the run at 3.8 plus. Made a run of nearly 30% in a few days. http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?sf=palm&msg=1829&t=0&cmd=r

Let this stock be a lesson to all that start out. If you entered in early, then you were suckered in. Was there a chart setup? Really.. was there a REAL chart setup when you entered? This stock is a clear example of what people will do to get the price up. The intensity of posts was just stupid. The bullzhit that was spewed was pathetic. Anything to get others in. Anything to drive the price up. The people that were bearish were attacked, called bashers and what not. When that happens you should be VERY alert that the stock might be being pumped.
This stock shows you that you have to wait. I posted repeatedly about waiting. Got nothing but filth in replies and mails. Whatever. There are many people on these boards out there to rob you of your money. Keep that in mind. Do not rely on others. If you can not do your own charts then you should not be in the market. Be capable of standing on your own 2 feet. I make tons of mistakes especially with ad hoc trades on ulu etc.. but the amount of mistakes are getting to the level of minute compared to the wins. The only reason why im getting wins is simple: take the time to learn beyond the average BS blogs out there, take take during the weekend to just sift through charts.
PALM was a bad call based on nothing but the pipe. Golden promises based on "i am allways right because i have ".
Anyhoo the reason why this thing started to move was that the ADX was flattening out. The downtrend was losing steam. The stock started to show divergences and the breakout line came close. That trendline was broken as the probability of a break increased due to reversal indications.
Study the chart, spend time on it even if its painfull due to losses. Spend more time on your losses than your gains.

And remember... if the whole pit is screaming about it .. then DO NOT GET IN! This was a line of my post:
"Well this "spineless basher" (wasn't that the term, hmmm?) thinks that PALM might finally start to fade out of the spotlight and thus start to return to normal stock movement behaviour."
Pay attention to the latter bit "PALM might finally start to fade out of the spotlight and thus start to return to normal stock movement behaviour" this was key.
The more idiots are in the more irrational the stock is. People that dont know what to do, people that sell off at any given point. Imagine how well you could prey on this on the short side. Talk it up and then short it to hell for you know that the stock is soaked with emotional weak hands.

For the record i dont short. Not because i refuse to, but because my broker doesnt allow it.

All in all palm made a great run,
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PALM&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p20525793720&a=194046260&listNum=1
we see the PSAR has flipped. The volume is increasing, but we see DOJI candles. The stock also closed the gap. So my GUESS would be flat to down.
Understand that ALL the shorts that shorted during the mar 18 and onwards period are at a loss. You can draw a simple line ... as shown on the hourly chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PALM&p=60&b=6&g=0&id=p74715101226&a=194046260&listNum=1
Notice the higher highs, but lower highs on the both the RSIs.
ADX is very overbought AND more importantly flat out. This is not a good signal to go long.
If palm pulls back to support it will be a hefty run since ALL bulls above the 5.04 line will be at a loss. Those need to exit.

In all fairness im very inexperienced with highly emotional plays. Palm became emotional again after the breakout.
I got a nice gain and im sticking to that for now.

CONCLUSION: im not trading this untill it gets more sensible. This post was another rant partially aimed at showing some details of the trade but also to point out what others do to hurt those that have not yet learned to protect themselves. I am still learning that. Understand, i AM a beginner. I do not hold any misconceptions about being a moderate trader. Im not. But im learning. I hope that this post helps some people .



=====================================
RSI based plays
=====================================

YRCW looks good to continue

ANX http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ANX&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p26346948041
expecting pullback to 22 cents or so. Good up volume, lower down volume. Selloff happened after touching the moving averages. This implies that other smas may act as support. RSI5 is on its way to test 40 line. If that holds without going much lower than 40 then we see new high.
It was overextended for now, needs to bottom.

WNR http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WNR&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p79084535160
id say it needs more pullback per multiple indicators, but the chart pattern is simple. Breakout and then a test of breakout level. Support is rising to meet it. RSI5 shows a good bull range. ADX overbought and topping out though. RSI 14 shows more upside (to 70-75 area)
Very nice trading range though

BQI http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BQI&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p58463329394
Showing a symetrical wedge formation related to overhead resistance in the form of moving averages.
Multiple indicators showing a side to down move. Watch this one near its apex. Im guessing more upside as the wedge is a continuation pattern. Might take a week or more to form.
ADX is green and rising. This will lead to higher lows in the stochastics. Stochastics will give false sell signals. RSI14 moving averages are bullish, indicating a pullback to support though.

LYG http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LYG&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p12279926500
An old watchlist alert. Worked out nicely. Broke out and pukked to support.
Macd is topped though, We have a higher low as well. Adx is flat so the stochs give reliable signals. They say sell. RSI14 9sma is curling down as well.
My guess would be a bull flag pattern as the price is in a downward range following the moving averages.
Give this some time. Im guessing this will go higher.

XOMA http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOMA&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p25972834104
posted earlier in the xoma thread
Chart looks very good. Breakout imminent. Gap closed on a high volume buy candle + breakout. RSI14 45ema is trending up in bull area. THis is good.
but .... I HATE THIS STOCK. This thing is the brainchild of the devil or cher .. i dont care whichever is worse. This thing hurts people as it never holds its gains. The management likes to hurt its shareholders with dilution after dilution near tops.
Chart doesnt lie though.

SNSS http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SNSS&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p65524251304
pull back to 88 level imo. As the rsi is to test the 40 level to se if its in a bull mode or not.
selling volume increased. This is a sell signal.
Keep on watch though as it is likely to start a trend when its less emotional.




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I am a newbie, been trading for a few months. So dont take my posts as advise, even when they might sound as if im certain of it. If you do follow it's your buy/sell and thus your screwup if it goes wrong.
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Here is the moral of all human tales; 'Tis but the same rehearsal of the past, First freedom, and then glory - when that fails, Wealth, vice, corruption - barbarism at last, And history, with all her volumes vast, Hath but one page.

- Byron.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q31XdlsC4D4

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