|I agree with you, I am sell side of market, i always insure in case market moves up, today is the case, we will retest lows or go further down by may end. Re: today looks like might, UNDERLINE MIGHT, finally break the up-down-up-down da...|
| Reply to mflutie1 - Msg #2832542 - 04/07/2020 10:46|
today looks like might, UNDERLINE MIGHT, finally break the up-down-up-down day to day pattern ( I'm not a full believer yet, let's see what 4pm brings).. BUT historically bear markets don't changed directions this fast in 23 days.
Have read all the posts from those that think it's over & to dive back in. Got me to thinking of closing my VERY profitable shorts & turning around
BUT!!... have always used history as a guide (& posted it) Has served me very well for literally decades, so here goes.
A decline like we had, the higher the bounce has usually gotten a deeper retest of the initial low.
Since 1929 we have had 13 huge off-the-cliff declines.9 of those 13 have retested the low & have broken it, the most resents being 2008-2009 & 1987. Of the other 4, 3 retested the low.
Average bear markets last 20 months, not freakin' days!
1st quarter earnings will be crap- expected down -8%
2nd quarter will also be bad.- expected down -15%
During the financial crisis GDP did not drop as much as expected now & earnings were down -40%...
those expected down earnings numbers seem too low compared to historic reality.
Next Unemployment numbers will be much higher.
National Federation of Independent Business optimism index dropped 8.1 points to 96.4, biggest drop in monthly surveys since 1986. 6 months from now outlook declined 17 points, the most since November 2012, to 5.
Average recessions have lasted 13 months. Historically markets hit their bottoms about 3 months before the recession ends. This one will probably be different & shorter, but still,,the WORLD is sick,
Incredible government stimulus will effect this,,,but there has NEVER been a time when entire economies were turned off! People in so many countries of the World are fearing what their economies will do.
Of course I'm still doing trades on a daily basis for what's presented.
But on the overall longer term outlook, I'm staying where I am for now.
All this always imNho & of course I have been wrong before,